Development trends and driving mechanisms of coordination in the Digitalization–Urban development–low-carbon transition system

Against the backdrop of sustainable development and China’s Dual Carbon Goals, Digitalization, Urban Development, and Low-carbon Transition continuously interact to shape urban sustainable development. However, the long-term coordination of the Digitalization–Urban Development–Low-carbon Transition (DUL) system and its underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently understood. To address this research gap, using panel data for 289 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2024, this study constructs the DUL system and applies the CRITIC-Entropy Weight Method to evaluate the development levels of the three subsystems and the overall DUL system. The Local and Tele-coupling Coordination Degree (LTCCD) is employed to characterize long-term coordination, while the Dagum Gini coefficient and GeoDetector are used to examine regional disparities and driving mechanisms. Based on this analytical framework, the results show that: (1) the development levels of Digitalization, Urban Development, and Low-carbon Transition all improved continuously, but their evolutionary trajectories differed, resulting in asynchronous development of the DUL system; (2) LTCCD exhibited a sustained upward trend, with coordination gradually evolving from imbalance to coordination, although eastern China consistently outperformed the central and western regions; (3) regional disparities in LTCCD generally narrowed, while interregional differences remained the primary source of spatial disparities, with the largest gap occurring between eastern and western China; and (4) the driving mechanisms of LTCCD evolved over time, with the explanatory power of individual factors changing dynamically, whereas the interaction effects among multiple factors consistently exceeded those of single factors, indicating that the long-term coordinated development of the DUL system mainly depends on multi-factor synergy. Taken together, these findings reveal the spatiotemporal evolution and formation mechanisms of long-term coordinated development in the DUL system and provide theoretical insights for promoting coordinated urban development and low-carbon transition in the digital era.